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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd