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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.