A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
